diddly-squat said:

dv said:

in fairness to the weather forecasters, it seems that warnings were made and but just not acted upon.

From Nick Humphrey Meteorologist…

“Here is a rough timeline of the US National Weather Service products issued that relate to the July 4th Texas flooding (for the record):

At 1:18 pm CDT July 3rd: Flood Watch (which included Kerr County) valid through Friday morning: “Locally heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding across portions of South-Central Texas. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts of 5 to 7 inches are possible.”

At 1:14 am CDT July 4th: Flash flood warning for northwestern Bandera County and central Kerr County.

At 1:26 am CDT July 4th: Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center- “Areas of flash flooding will be likely across central TX overnight with very heavy rainfall expected. Hourly rainfall in excess of 2 to 3 inches seems reasonable given the environment and localized 6-hr totals over 6 inches will be possible. Some flash flood impacts could be significant, especially considering sensitive terrain over portions of the region.”

Numerous flash flood warnings were issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio throughout the night/early morning of July 4th. A flash flood emergency was issued for portions of Kerr County at 4:03 am CDT:

“At 403 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain. Numerous low water crossings as well as the Guadalupe River at Hunt are flooding. Between 4 and 10 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 4 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.

This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for South-central Kerr County,
including Hunt. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!”

5:34 am CDT July 4th: Flash Flood Emergency for Kerrville.

6:27 am CDT July 4th: Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center- “Localized high impact flash flooding to continue into mid-morning.”

7:24 am CDT July 4th: Flash Flood Emergency for Comfort. Other flash flood emergencies also occurred on July 4th (a total of six).

10:33 am CDT July 4th: Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center- “Significant to catastrophic flash flooding to continue given 2-3 in/hr rainfall rates. Spots of additional 4-6 inches possible.”

I think given the extreme nature of the event (including rainfall rates and totals exceeding what was initially predicted), the NWS did the best they could with the information provided. There may be debates on what role cuts to NWS resources (upper air balloon launches, resulting numerical model degradation, physical vacancies in the office) contributed to the prediction of this event, but the regardless…flooding, including the potential for flash flooding was predicted and it did occur, and warnings were issued for those instances. This event just went off the charts with what ended up occurring.”