For the upcoming Vic election, Morgan did a nice three way 2PP analysis from their latest poll

Labor vs Coalition: 51 – 49
Labor vs ONP: 53.5 – 46.5
Coalition vs ONP: 59 – 41

In the primaries
ALP 25.5
Coalition 24
ONP 24.5
Green 13.5
Ind 8.5
Oth 4

Presumably ALP will hoover up most of those Green votes.

I still think a minority govt is on the cards, either Coalition with ONP support, or ALP with Green support.