Date: 3/05/2026 13:15:44
From: dv
ID: 2387320
Subject: Australian politics - May 2026

In Nepean, ONP were second on primaries but did not make it to the final two-candidate distribution.
The reason for this is that the ONP did not pick up a lot of preferences before elimination.

At the primary stage, the votes were:

Lib 38.5%
ONP 24.7%
Ind 21.3%
Others 15.5%

After the distribution of Others

Lib 41.2%
Ind 30.6%
ONP 28.3%

That is, Libs picked up 17% of preferences from Other, ONP got 23%, and 60% went to the Independent.

At the elimination of ONP, most of those prefs went to the Liberal rather than the Independent, leading to a final 2cp of around 63 – 37 in the Liberal’s favour.

Lord knows how it will pan out in the November election but it does illustrate that a high primary vote can fail to translate to a lot of seats if much of the rest of the population put you last on the docket.

Reply Quote View full thread